In a Feb.17, 2006 post, the World in 2020, I described how the National Intelligence Council imagined the world might look only 14 years from now. One of the most powerful suggestions of the NIC report was that the engine of the world’s economy in 2020 would no longer be the United States, but rather that role will have shifted to China and other Asian countries.
In this light, an article in the May 14 Los Angeles Times entitled Emerging Nations Power World Economic Boom leapt right out at me. In that article, Tom Petruno writes, “Yet this is a different kind of boom from any other in the post-World War II era, analysts say. The soaring economies of China, India, Russia, Brazil and other emerging nations increasingly are setting the pace, overshadowing the slower growth of the United States, Europe and Japan, where the benefits of the expansion have eluded many workers.” Numerous statements in the article indicate that the underpinning of the boom in the emerging nations is the buying power of the United States, so one cannot yet take the US out of the driver’s seat. However, it is obvious that the global economic situation today could be interpreted as a step on the way to the condition predicted for 2020 by the NIC.